My Lords, I want to return to the issue of expenditure in due course, but before I do, I associate myself with the remarks made about the Secretary of State. He has performed his responsibilities in an outstanding fashion, with great commitment. Of course, it is perhaps helpful that in his particular case he was a serving officer in Her Majesty’s Army.

On expenditure, does the Minister agree that what the Government are seeking to do when it comes to expenditure is to create a virtue out of necessity? In putting that question to her, I have regard to the contents of page 3 of the document and, in particular, the paragraph on the left-hand side which begins:

“After three decades of drawing the post-Cold War ‘peace’”.

The Minister herself referred to part of the language thereafter. I want to unpack that language, if I may. It is clear that the 2.5% which is set out there depends on GDP. The estimated GDP for the United Kingdom economy this year is 0.3%. It does not seem to me to be a figure which would allow any movement towards 2.5%.

The other point that I want to make, and the Minister has already referred to it, relates to

“as the fiscal and economic circumstances allow”.

That is an entirely subjective test to be made at the whim, one might say, of the Government of the time. It is a test which, for example, could be blown away if the Government of the time were more enthused about expenditure on health or education, or something of that kind. Since we are talking about the Secretary of State, it is right to remember that there was a very public attempt by him to persuade the Prime Minister that more money in real terms should be made available for the defence budget. I am rather surprised by the expression—and the Minister may be able to help me with what exactly is meant by it—

“this ambitious trajectory also enables our modernisation for the challenges of the future”.

The trajectory is not only ambitious; it is entirely without foundation or substance.

We get some illustration of where this approach leads us if we look across the page at the paragraph that says:

“That does not just mean more ships, tanks and jets—indeed in this document there are deliberately no new commitments on platforms at all”.

The Minister has heard me—on a number of occasions—ask about the number of F35s that the United Kingdom is going to pursue, in order to ensure that those pilots who have been assigned to fly with that aircraft actually get the opportunity of flying one. I have heard it suggested that they should spend their time on simulators. Is that a serious suggestion? Respectfully, it seems to me that the Government’s ambitions are set out, but the substance by which they could be achieved seems to be a long way from the contents of at least page 3 of this document.

My Lords, I begin by declaring my interest as a member of the British delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, where, I have no doubt, many of the issues that have been ventilated this evening will be further discussed.

If I had to choose what I regarded as the two most significant things as a result of Vilnius, I would be driven to accept that these were the accession of Sweden and what looks like—I put it no more strongly than that—an end to the intransigence of Turkey. These are very good harbingers of the extent to which NATO remains the bulwark of not only our defence but the defence of the free world. For that reason, the addition of Finland and, in due course, Sweden is more than welcome, not least because they will make a positive contribution to the overall position of the whole membership of the alliance.

The other point I am particularly pleased about is the joint declaration of support for Ukraine. There was much speculation before, during and after in relation to membership of NATO and the extent to which that should be accelerated or, indeed, even granted in the course of the Vilnius discussions. We should never forget that Georgia was made the same undertaking. In all these discussions, no one ever talks about the consequences of the implementation of that undertaking given the fact of very considerable Russian influence in Georgia.

I want to make a point that is not always made in relation to membership of NATO: it is not just about military capability. Membership of NATO involves an acceptance of democratic principles, an acknowledgement of human rights and an absence of corruption. Any country that seeks to join NATO and become part of the arrangement, in particular under Article 5, is obliged to demonstrate these principles. In the best possible analysis of the current position, which we must make, it could hardly be said that these matters were well and truly at the centre of Ukraine.

The Leader of the House was sceptical about the use of language, or criticism of the use of language. I make this point: the Statement reads a bit like Dr Pangloss. I think the effectiveness of the Statement on these issues would be much enhanced if it were in much more down-to-earth language.

Finally, I am being advised that I must ask a question, and I am about to do so: how can it be said—as the Statement says—that there has been an increase in defence expenditure when, while more money has been given to the budget of the Ministry of Defence, there has been no increase in defence expenditure? What money has been given does not to any extent deal with the issue of inflation. Everyone knows that inflation when it comes to, for example, the purchase of military equipment is always much greater than elsewhere. Respectfully, returning to the point I made a moment or two, it seems to me that a bit more realism would carry more credibility.

My Lords, the Minister will understand that my experience in relation to prosecuting and defending rape is, to put it mildly, dated. He will, of course, be aware of the proposals now being made north of the border. To what extent are these being taken into account in the other jurisdiction in which he has responsibility?

My Lords, the Secretary of State for the United States recently visited China. What assessment have His Majesty’s Government made of the success or otherwise of that visit?

My Lords, the Secretary of State for the United States recently visited China. What assessment have His Majesty’s Government made of the success or otherwise of that visit?